065
FXUS62 KCAE 041758
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1258 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THURSDAY MORNING PRECIP DISCUSSION AND AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE, WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW-SHOWERS OR
BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
- 2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE, WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW-
SHOWERS OR BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
BROAD OVERRUNNING DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING 500-850 TROUGH,
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THESE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY YIELD BETWEEN 0.75-1.0" QPF FOR
THE PERIOD WITH A BAND OF HEAVIEST QPF LIKELY TOWARDS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE MAIN PRECIP LINE LATER THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, THE 850MB AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST AND DRIVE SOME NOTABLE COLD ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION AND DROP SURFACE TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30'S. THE
COLUMN WILL STEADILY COOL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING MUCH OF
THE PROFILE BELOW 700MB BETWEEN -10-0 C. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
BELOW 500MB WILL BE PRESENT TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL WITH NEAR FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS; HREF GUIDANCE
IS MIXED ON WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SNOW GROWTH, EVEN IF BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MIX OF SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
FROM ROUGHLY 6AM-10AM, PRIMARILY LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES;
THE HRRR BRINGS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20 BUT SURFACE
TEMPS WOULD MITIGATE ANY IMPACTS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE EXTREMELY
BORDERLINE IN EITHER SCENARIO SO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL. SO THE RISK CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH THOUGH THAT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
NO NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, QUITE THE
CHANGE FROM THE SIGNIFICANT COLD SPELL FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WHICH LIKELY BE COLDER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH NAEFS MEAN INDICATING 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE
BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE. UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS
WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE FAVORING A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALL BUT GUARANTEE LOW CIGS,
WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO -RA OR -DZ AND BR. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY
PREDOMINANT IFR/LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN REDUCED WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING. GENERALLY SLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE RELAXING A BIT AFTER 00Z. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH GENERALLY BETWEEN 00-03Z
WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THEN PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AROUND 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THE
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
RETURNING DRY AIR SHOULD BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...10
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