214
FXUS62 KCAE 042336
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE, WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OR BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
- 2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE, WITH SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THAT SAID,
RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST PUSHES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
WE GET TOWARD DAYBREAK, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE, GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-20. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
FREEZING/THAWING MARK BEFORE WARMING BACK UP, SO IMPACTS DUE TO
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
NO NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, QUITE THE
CHANGE FROM THE SIGNIFICANT COLD SPELL FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WHICH LIKELY BE COLDER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH NAEFS MEAN INDICATING 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE
BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE. UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS
WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE FAVORING A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
A TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES EASTWARD. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH THIS AS IFR CEILINGS ARE NOTED
EVERYWHERE. RAIN IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, AS IT DOES SO, A
SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS, FORCING SOME IN-SITU WEDGE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD, MAYBE ONLY LIFTING BY 19Z-21Z TOMORROW. DRIZZLE IS ALSO
EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PICTURE PERFECT SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
SO HAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY UNTIL THE SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS & THEN THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
BULK OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FINALLY END ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
SCOUR OUT REMAINING CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29/42
AVIATION...82
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page