056
FXUS62 KCAE 050541
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1241 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE AND AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING MORNING.
THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
- 2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING.
THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
RADAR IMAGERY AT MIDNIGHT SHOWS THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA, WITH MUCH LIGHTER RETURNS ELSEWHERE.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL, IF ANY. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG AS WELL TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WERE SCALED BACK TODAY DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS
AND SHALLOW CAA ASSOCIATED WITH WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS. AFTER
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH DAYBREAK,
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND TODAY, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL US WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING A QUICK RETURN TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
RAIN IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SINKS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT AND SOME DRIZZLE REDUCING
VSBYS AS LOW AS 2SM AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE TERMINALS AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN
TO ERODE THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
FROM THE NORTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FINALLY END
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SCOUR OUT
REMAINING CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
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