141
FXUS62 KCAE 051149
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
649 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 AND AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AREAS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE TAPER OFF TODAY. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
- 2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: AREAS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE TAPER OFF TODAY. PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
WHILE MUCH OF THE RAIN HAS PASSED OFF TO THE EAST, THE LATEST
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE TODAY. WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AS OF DAYBREAK, PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING. SINCE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL, PERHAPS A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF A INCH, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WERE SCALED BACK TODAY DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS
AND SHALLOW CAA ASSOCIATED WITH WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
BEYOND TODAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 18Z THEN GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS RESULTED
IN WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS BELOW 1000
FT AND SOME DRIZZLE REDUCING VSBYS AS LOW AS 2SM AT TIMES. THESE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FINALLY END
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SCOUR OUT
REMAINING CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
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