582
FXUS62 KCAE 051801
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 AND AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
- 2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIVE OUT OF THE UPSTATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE 850MB TROUGH AXIS, SITTING UNDER THE STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF THE 500MB TROUGH. BOTH MOISTURE AND
FORCING IS LIMITED, SO SNOWFALL RATES ARE MEDIOCRE AT BEST. BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME FLURRIES TO THE MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WHILE TEMPS ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW, THERE ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING SO
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED SNOWFALL RATES.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THINKING OVER THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON,
IF AT ALL, WITH FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. BEYOND TODAY,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING ABOVE WELL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK; TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
ARE LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 70'S BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN
WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET.
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE HAS ALSO BEEN REDUCING VSBYS AT TIMES, THOUGH
THIS HAS ABATED SOME IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. THESE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. WHILE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO HIGH-
END MVFR ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AROUND/ABOUT 00Z AND CONTINUE TO CLEAR INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SFC WINDS GENERALLY NLY TODAY AROUND 5-10 KTS,
DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON FRIDAY WLY
AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 16 KTS POSSIBLE
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WITH NO
ANTICIPATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...10
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