458
FXUS62 KCAE 052338
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND 00Z AVIATION
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
- 2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
BUT MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. AS SUCH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT.
THE LOWS WILL BE DEPENDENT SOMEWHAT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND OVERNIGHT. EITHER WAY, CHILLY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING ABOVE WELL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK; TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
ARE LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 70'S BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE BULK OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS QUICKLY CLEARED OUT CEILINGS AT
AREA TAF SITES, WITH OGB NEARLY IN VFR CONDITIONS PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THERE IS ONE MORE BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SITES RIGHT NOW AND IT CONTAINS CIGS
AROUND 2500 FT BUT THIS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE SITES AFTER
02Z. BY THAT POINT, MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHTS CROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR BODIES OF WATER OR FOG PRONE LOCATIONS GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE SAW YESTERDAY. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG AT BAY, THOUGH. AS WE GET INTO
TOMORROW, MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF A STOUT, DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
LOOK FOR WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25
KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR TAFS ARE
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WITH NO
ANTICIPATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29/42
AVIATION...82
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