094
FXUS62 KCAE 061154
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH UP THE I-77
CORRIDOR AND EAST FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION. AVIATION DISCUSSION ALSO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FREEZING FOG LEADING TO LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION.
- 2) DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING LEADING TO
GUSTY WINDS.
- 3) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: FREEZING FOG LEADING TO LOWERING VISIBILITIES
AND LIGHT ICE ACCRETION.
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPED OVER ORANGEBURG, BAMBERG, AND BARNWELL
COUNTIES AND WHILE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE,
ORANGEBURG AIRPORT RECORDED A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION. THE FOG HAS EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SO THE
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED. WHILE WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS REMAIN UNLIKELY, SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
KEY MESSAGE #2: DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING
LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL DEEPEN
TODAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS, MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LANCASTER OR CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. WINDS
INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, BECOMING BREEZY
TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WHILE IMPACTS ON LAKES WILL BE
LIMITED, AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO IMPROVED MIXING OVERNIGHT. WITH THE NAEFS MEAN INDICATING THE
850MB JET WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER
LAKES. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 7PM
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY, AFTER WHICH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE #3: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RELATIVELY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S,
EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT/MORNING IN THE PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGING LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
US WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING ABOVE WELL NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK; TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE LIKELY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE 70'S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE THEN GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME LINGERING MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OR FREEZING FOG BUT VSBYS ARE
IMPROVING AT THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, OTHER THAN SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE 00Z-02Z TIME FRAME AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO ANTICIPATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ035-
038-041-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...23
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