247
FXUS62 KCAE 061743
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1243 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO THE AVIATION SECTION AND THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING LEADING TO
GUSTY WINDS.
- 2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING LEADING
TO GUSTY WINDS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME SETS UP BEHIND A DIGGING COLD FRONT. THE 850MB JET WILL
PUSH OVER 40-50 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD AND WITH STRONG
SOLAR HEATING, SHOULD MIX DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING. SO SOME WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE
OUT A QUICK SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. OVERNIGHT, RELATIVELY WARM LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MIX WINDS DOWN WELL AND CONTINUE GUSTY WINDS AT LEAST OVER
WATER. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 7PM
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY ALONG WITH
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
KEY MESSAGE #3: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RELATIVELY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S,
EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT/MORNING IN THE PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGING LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
US WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING ABOVE WELL NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK; TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE LIKELY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE MID-70'S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE 00Z-02Z TIME FRAME AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDSPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY, BUT MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO ANTICIPATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...10
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