692
FXUS62 KCAE 062344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE AND
MINOR UPDATES TO KEY MESSAGE #1.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING LEADING TO
GUSTY WINDS.
- 2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING LEADING
TO GUSTY WINDS.
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS LOCATED IN
THE UPSTATE THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AS CAN BE SEEN IN
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A FEW ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH, IF ANY, OF IT IS REACHING THE
GROUND. WINDS AT THE 850 MB LEVEL ARE BLOWING AROUND 40 MPH, AND
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH, THESE WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE SOMEWHAT, RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS SUCH, A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE #3: TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RELATIVELY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S,
EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT/MORNING IN THE PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGING LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
US WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING ABOVE WELL NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK; TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE LIKELY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE MID-70'S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE MIDLANDS SITES AS A STRONG, DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS WILL PASS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HELP
FACILITATE SOME GUSTY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 18-25
KNOTS AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY THING TO REALLY WORRY ABOUT WILL BE
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, SPECIFICALLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB ON
SATURDAY. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MUCH HIGHER AT THESE SITES DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY THAN AT AGS OR DNL, FACILITATING ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THEY RELAX SATURDAY
MORNING. BUT OTHERWISE, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A QUIET TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO ANTICIPATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...29/42
AVIATION...82
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