021
FXUS62 KCAE 072343
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO AVIATION SECTION. RAIN CHANCES HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO END THE WEEKEND
WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO END THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
COLD, DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 20S
LIKELY. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS REMAINING
ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH NIGHT IS FAIRLY HIGH.
AFTER THIS, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW STRONG
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY WEEK, BRINGING A
WARM UP WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BEGIN TO REACH THE 70S ON
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS IQR RANGES REMAIN
FAIRLY LARGE, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AFTER
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE MOST
RECENT LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN
CLUSTERS STEMS FROM THE DEGREE OF RIDGING THAT CAN BUILD BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL US AND ALSO THE STRENGTH OF TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. ONE CONSISTENCY AMONGST CLUSTERS AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IS THAT MOISTURE SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHERE ANY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE COULD BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. THE RECENT 12Z GFS HAS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED WITH IT'S AI COUNTERPART, SHOWING A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GUIDANCE DIVERGES MORE. OVERALL, INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD COULD AID IN
BRINGING BACK RAIN CHANCES TO THE FA, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF FORCING REMAINS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE HIGH MAY BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE DNL
FOR WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. WINDS
GENERALLY BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND REMAIN
LIGHT. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO ANTICIPATED AVIATION
CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MOVING
INTO MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND
BRINGS RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH IT
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...17/CJR
AVIATION...29
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