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FXUS62 KCAE 081115
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO END THE WEEKEND WITH
A WARM UP EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO END THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH A COLD AIR MASS REMAINING OVER THE AREA AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 0 AND -5C. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TODAY AFTER A COLD START. AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. BOTH GEFS MEAN AND EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S TODAY TO NEARING
70 BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A FRONT NEAR THE AREA LEADS TO BLENDED
GUIDANCE FAVORING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE,
NOTABLY COOLER FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL
IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LREF
PROBABILITIES OF PWATS GREATER THAN AN INCH AROUND 50-70%
WEDNESDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER WITH POPS
AS THERE REMAINS INCREASING AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO
BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY, MAINLY AS IT PERTAINS TO THE TIMING OF A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IN
GENERAL, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN
UNSETTLED END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH NAEFS AND EC EFI ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH MOISTURE ANOMALIES FOR THE AIR MASS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. AIRMASS
REMAINS VERY DRY, AND THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM WITH
ONLY THIN CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO ANTICIPATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MOVING INTO MID-WEEK AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS RAIN POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH IT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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