037
FXUS62 KCAE 081746
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1246 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO AVIATION SECTION. BETTER AGREEMENT IN RAIN CHANCES
MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP
BEGINNING TOMORROW, CONTINUING INTO THE MID WEEK.
- 2) FIRST RAIN CHANCE IN THE EXTENDED COMES WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP BEGINNING TOMORROW, CONTINUING INTO THE MID
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE AREA TODAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON STICK TOWARD THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH A COUPLE SPOTS NEARING 50. TONIGHT, SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT, BUT
CHILLY LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH
SOUTHERN SPOTS CLOSER TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE UPPER RIDGE
THEN BEGINS TO NEAR THE REGION MONDAY, MOVING OVERHEAD BY
TUESDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS EXCEEDING THE NAEFS 99TH PERCENTILE.
THIS STRONG RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY BEFORE NEARING THE 70S ON TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS TEMPERATURES, BUT THE TREND
IN BLENDED GUIDANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LOWERING TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE LATE WEEK HAS
CONTINUED, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING GREATER MODEL
CONFIDENCE IN TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: FIRST RAIN CHANCE IN THE EXTENDED COMES
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER
LATE IN THE WEEK.
GREATER AGREEMENT IS SEEN ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE MID WEEK BEFORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. RECENT ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE
DISPLAYS A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WILL
GRADUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING PVA NEAR THE FA TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SHORTWAVE, PWAT'S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
150-170% OF NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS SLIGHT
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
AFTER THIS, GREATER VARIABILITY REMAINS IN MODELS IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE HAS
BEEN A BIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING THIS TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH A SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING, BUT GENEROUS TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST. DUE TO THIS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS LOW BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE POP'S SHOULD EXIST HEADING TOWARD THE LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,
RESULTING IN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL
OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST AND STREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH REMAINING VFR, AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO ANTICIPATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MOVING INTO MID-WEEK AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS RAIN POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH IT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...JAQ
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