353
FXUS62 KCAE 082355
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
655 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO AVIATION SECTION. BETTER AGREEMENT IN RAIN CHANCES
MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT.
- 2) FIRST RAIN CHANCE IN THE EXTENDED COMES WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT.
DESPITE SOME CIRRUS TONIGHT, LOWS WILL STILL DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE CSRA MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO NEAR THE REGION
MONDAY, MOVING OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS EXCEEDING
THE NAEFS 99TH PERCENTILE. THIS STRONG RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL WAA
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY BEFORE
NEARING THE 70S ON TUESDAY. HEADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
THUS TEMPERATURES, BUT THE TREND IN BLENDED GUIDANCE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY BEFORE LOWERING TO NEAR
NORMAL DURING THE LATE WEEK HAS CONTINUED, AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING GREATER MODEL CONFIDENCE IN TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: FIRST RAIN CHANCE IN THE EXTENDED COMES
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER
LATE IN THE WEEK.
GREATER AGREEMENT IS SEEN ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE MID WEEK BEFORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. RECENT ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE
DISPLAYS A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WILL
GRADUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING PVA NEAR THE FA TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND SHORTWAVE, PWAT'S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
150-170% OF NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS SLIGHT
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
AFTER THIS, GREATER VARIABILITY REMAINS IN MODELS IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE HAS
BEEN A BIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING THIS TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH A SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING, BUT GENEROUS TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST. DUE TO THIS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS LOW BUT AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE POP'S SHOULD EXIST HEADING TOWARD THE LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD IS EXPECTED TO BRING
CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS, BUT
STILL VFR, LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (~10% OR LESS) FOR A PASSING SHOWER AT THE TERMINALS
AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SHOULD
PRECIPITATION OCCUR. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT,
GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS, THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK AND TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY LATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO ANTICIPATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MOVING INTO MID-WEEK AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS RAIN POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH IT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...17/CJR
AVIATION...29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page