207
FXUS62 KCAE 090559
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. UPDATES TO AVIATION
SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE,
RISING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN
THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY (A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN). WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THURSDAY, THERE IS LESS OF A SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITHIN BLENDED GUIDANCE.
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA
(MORE ON THIS IN KEY MESSAGE 2).
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID-WEEK, PULLING MOISTURE INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
LEAD TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AS A FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST,
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE FORCING WILL
GENERALLY BE WEAK OVER THE AREA, NAEFS MEAN INDICATES IVT OVER THE
90TH PERCENTILE WITH A RELATIVELY RAPID MOISTURE INCREASE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN, ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY LOW QPF. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW PROBABILITIES
(LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) OF TOTAL RAINFALL GREATER THAN A QUARTER
INCH. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY ON BOARD WITH A DRY
THURSDAY WITH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF EC AND GEFS MEMBERS SHOWING
MEASURABLE RAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE
LIKELY MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE. A STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL US WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERSES
THE COUNTRY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
MAINLY EXPECTING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PASS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS, THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK AND TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO ANTICIPATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MOVING INTO MID-WEEK AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS RAIN POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH IT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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