578
FXUS62 KCAE 091801
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY ARE TRENDING LIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES TO END THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- 2) FIRST RAIN CHANCE MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THROUGH TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACH THE NAEFS 90TH
PERCENTILE ON TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL BEGIN REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY MILD POST FROPA WITH HIGHS ONLY DIPPING A BIT
COMPARED TO TUESDAY, INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
COOLER/DRIER AIR LIKELY MOVES IN FOR THE LATE WEEK AS WEAK
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE FA, BUT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY DUE
TO TIMING DISCREPANCIES FOR A SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE IN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE #2: FIRST RAIN CHANCE MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR THE OUTLOOK INTO THE
MIDWEEK AS THE BAJA LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH PWAT'S
IN THE REGION INCREASING TOWARD 1-1.25" ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ENDING SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. IN GENERAL, VERY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THE LATEST
GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.10" BEING LESS THAN 50%
FOR MUCH OF THE FA. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED THURSDAY DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
AREA BUT GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THROUGH THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS, IT IS REVEALED THAT MUCH
OF THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM DISCREPANCIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE BAJA LOW'S PROGRESSION OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US AND THUS
IT'S IMPACT ON A UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. IN GENERAL, A FASTER MOVING BAJA LOW WOULD ALLOW
SHORTWAVE RIDGING (AS SHOWN IN THE 06Z ECMWF) TO BUILD IN ON
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS WHILE A
SLOWER PROGRESSION (12Z GFS) MAY ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW, TO NEAR THE REGION
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST ALL CLUSTERS THAT
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY AS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FA WITH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT
FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW AND MATURING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES IN.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, WITH SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY BUT SURELY SHIFTING OUT OF
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS CLEARED, WITH ALL TAF SITES REPORTING CLEAR SKIES.
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD DESPITE MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER CLOSER TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS A
BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT, IT LOOKS TO SET IN AFTER THE
INVERSION DOES OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT OUR FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. BY TOMORROW, STRONGER WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. LOOK FOR WIND GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO ANTICIPATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MOVING INTO MID-WEEK AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS RAIN POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH IT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...82
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