813
FXUS62 KCAE 100020
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
720 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS. RESTRUCTURE KEY
MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
- 2) HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR THE OUTLOOK INTO THE
MIDWEEK AS THE BAJA LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH PWAT'S
IN THE REGION INCREASING TOWARD 1-1.25" ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ENDING SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. IN GENERAL, VERY LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THE LATEST
GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.10" BEING LESS THAN 50%
FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
KEY MESSAGE #2: HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THROUGH THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS, IT IS REVEALED THAT MUCH
OF THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM DISCREPANCIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE BAJA LOW'S PROGRESSION OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US AND THUS
IT'S IMPACT ON A UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. IN GENERAL, A FASTER MOVING BAJA LOW WOULD ALLOW
SHORTWAVE RIDGING (AS SHOWN IN THE 06Z ECMWF) TO BUILD IN ON
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS WHILE A
SLOWER PROGRESSION (12Z GFS) MAY ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW, TO NEAR THE REGION
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST ALL CLUSTERS THAT
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY AS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FA WITH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT
FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW AND MATURING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES IN.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AT
OGB/AGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK....
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A FEW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDLANDS SO OPTED TO ADD A FEW040 TO THE TERMINALS AS THE
LATEST HREF DATA SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT, THOUGH MODELED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS BASES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TEMPO FOR 3SM BR
AT OGB AND AGS FOR PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY
AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS A SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...07
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