469
FXUS62 KCAE 100609
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
109 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAFS. LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHT QPF WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
- 2) STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO
CHANCES FOR MORE HEAVIER RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A STRENGTHENING FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY, FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TO
THE WEST FROM A BAJA LOW BEING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE FLOW CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A RELATIVELY HIGH POP, LOW QPF
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE 50TH PERCENTILE
AMOUNTS ARE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT, AIR MASS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS A MUCH MORE LIMITED SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURE RANGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INDICATING RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KEY MESSAGE #2: HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
A BAJA LOW FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD AND BECOME THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE CONUS LEADING TO DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AND STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WITH A
ROBUST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH NAEFS MEAN
SHOWING 850 MB WINDS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA, BLENDED
GUIDANCE FAVORS MUCH HEAVIER RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM WITH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
VERY HIGH, ESPECIALLY FOR A DAY 6 FORECAST (70-80%). ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY AS WELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WHILE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE
LOW AT THIS POINT, WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS.
THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY MAINLY INTO HOW AND WHEN THE BAJA
LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE OVERALL FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AT
OGB/AGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH ONLY A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
MORE TOWARDS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z. IN LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG POTENTIAL AT AGS/OGB, DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL FOG
FORMATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH 3SM BR AT AGS/OGB, AND P6SM ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LLWS POTENTIAL
AT THIS TIME. A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THAT HAS A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LLWS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS, AND MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS WITH
LATER TAF FORECASTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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