479
FXUS62 KCAE 101145
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
- 2) STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO
CHANCES FOR MORE HEAVIER RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A STRENGTHENING FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY, FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TO
THE WEST FROM A BAJA LOW BEING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE FLOW CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A RELATIVELY HIGH POP, LOW QPF
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE 50TH PERCENTILE
AMOUNTS ARE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT, AIR MASS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS A MUCH MORE LIMITED SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURE RANGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INDICATING RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KEY MESSAGE #2: HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
A BAJA LOW FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD AND BECOME THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE CONUS LEADING TO DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AND STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WITH A
ROBUST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH NAEFS MEAN
SHOWING 850 MB WINDS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA, BLENDED
GUIDANCE FAVORS MUCH HEAVIER RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM WITH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
VERY HIGH, ESPECIALLY FOR A DAY 6 FORECAST (70-80%). ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY AS WELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WHILE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE
LOW AT THIS POINT, WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS.
THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY MAINLY INTO HOW AND WHEN THE BAJA
LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE OVERALL FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
PERIOD. MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH
RAIN SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MOVING IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
CEILINGS...MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS LOW-LEVEL IFR STRATUS
DECK MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GA, AND TOWARDS
THE CSRA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, BUT CURRENT BLEND
SLOWS THE MOVEMENT AND KEEPS IT JUST OUTSIDE OF AGS/DNL TAF
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE LATEST HRRR DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS TO KEEP MOVING INTO THE CSRA, IMPACTING THOSE TWO
LOCATIONS TOWARDS 15Z. HAVE KEPT IT OUT FOR THE 12Z TAFS, BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR A TEMPO GROUP IF IT DOES NOT SLOW
DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAINLY SOME CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS. STRATUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM, BUT AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.
VISIBILITIES...RIGHT NOW FORECAST TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, A FEW SPOT REQUESTS FOR REGIONAL BURNS THAT WOULD BE
SOUTHWEST OF A FEW AIRPORTS COULD IMPACT VISIBILITY'S AT
AGS/DNL, AND ALSO AT CAE/CUB. A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION, ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MIXING, COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN LOWER MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE OR SMOKE. HAVE LEFT OUT
OF CURRENT TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO BURNS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING, BUT IF THEY DO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING, LOCAL
AIRPORTS COULD BE IMPACTED.
FINALLY WINDS...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY. SPEEDS LIGHT TO START, THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE MORNING AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME WIND GUSTS REACH 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE SETTING
UP, BRINGING 30+ KNOTS AROUND 2KFT. AS LONG AS SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN UP, LLWS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS A SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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