348
FXUS62 KCAE 101753
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN INCREASES. UPDATES TO AVIATION SECTION FOR
THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD FRONT MOVES IN WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES.
- 2) NEXT RAIN CHANCE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: COLD FRONT MOVES IN WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES AND BREEZY WINDS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE BAJA LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS
BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH TOWARD THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BE WORKING INTO THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING,
CLEARING THE FA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GENEROUS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH PWAT'S REACHING
TOWARD 1.25" WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD AID IN BRINGING
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES TO THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS OUT. OVERALL, NOT
MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
THOUGH RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BUMPED UP A BIT WHERE SPOTS
TOWARD 0.25" COULD BE POSSIBLE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND
IT, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS QUICKLY FALL FROM THE 50S INTO THE
LOWER 30S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR
THURSDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE AROUND NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE #2: NEXT RAIN CHANCE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER BAJA LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT IS SEEN ACROSS
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, AND LESS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS IS EVIDENT
IN THE LATEST LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY STILL
REVOLVES AROUND HOW THE BAJA LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW BUT IN GENERAL, THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AS A
25-35 KT LLJ SETS UP. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
POTENTIAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA WHERE ALL 4
CLUSTERS AND THE MEAN LREF SOLUTION CURRENTLY HAVE PROBABILITIES
FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF QPF BETWEEN 40-60%. THE MOST RECENT NBM
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THIS AS WELL WITH PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 1" OF QPF BETWEEN 60-70%. THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WEAK MUCAPE TO WORK INTO THE REGION, BUT
GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXISTS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE COMMENCED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING IN STRENGTH. STILL LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SKIES
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SLOWLY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLACED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA SITES
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF PRESCRIBED BURNS THAT ARE DUE
SOUTHWEST OF EACH SITE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT SMOKE OR
HAZE IS A CONSISTENT PROBLEM BUT THE BURNS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
IT COULD LIMIT VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY AT THE AIRFIELDS
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT, SURFACE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
WIND FIELDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. SURFACE
FLOW LIKELY WON'T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AVOID LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR, THOUGH, WITH WINDS AROUND 40-45 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. HAVE
LLWS IN THE TAFS FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z AT ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE AND YIELD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
IS SUPPORT AMONGST GUIDANCE TO THINK THAT SOME MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T SUPER HIGH IN THIS AT THIS
POINT. HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE TAFS BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
THE CIG FORECAST GETS MORE PESSIMISTIC OR MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
MORE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA TRENDS. EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TOMORROW MORNING THAT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
UNLIKELY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE AREA JUST AFTER
18Z TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW AS WINDS VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND DRY
AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...82
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