910
FXUS62 KCAE 102355
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
655 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD FRONT MOVES IN WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES.
- 2) PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: COLD FRONT MOVES IN WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES AND BREEZY WINDS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE OVER THE
REGION BEFORE SUNRISE BUT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP AMOUNTS
VERY LIGHT, IF MEASURABLE AT ALL, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH PWAT'S REACHING AROUND 1.25" NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
THE FRONT CLEARS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND. OVERALL, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE EXPECTED
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THOUGH RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS
BUMPED UP A BIT WHERE SPOTS TOWARD 0.25" COULD BE POSSIBLE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND IT, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS QUICKLY
FALL FROM THE 50S INTO THE LOWER 30S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE AROUND NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE #2: PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER BAJA LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT IS SEEN ACROSS
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, AND LESS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS IS EVIDENT
IN THE LATEST LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY STILL
REVOLVES AROUND HOW THE BAJA LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW BUT IN GENERAL, THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AS A
25-35 KT LLJ SETS UP. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
POTENTIAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA WHERE ALL 4
CLUSTERS AND THE MEAN LREF SOLUTION CURRENTLY HAVE PROBABILITIES
FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF QPF BETWEEN 40-60%. THE MOST RECENT NBM
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THIS AS WELL WITH PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 1" OF QPF BETWEEN 60-70%. THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WEAK MUCAPE TO WORK INTO THE REGION, BUT
GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXISTS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT THE TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK....
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AT THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING, INCREASING THE RISK OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
THREAT WITH THIS UPDATE WITH WINDS AROUND 40-45 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT 2000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE THREAT OF LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN
TONIGHT, WITH RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z AND
13Z. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS, ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page