250
FXUS62 KCAE 111107
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND UPDATED MESOANALYSIS BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATE TO AVIATION
SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD FRONT MOVES IN TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
- 2) PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: COLD FRONT MOVES IN TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WITH INCREASING 850MB WINDS,
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING WITH HREF PROBABILITY OF
850MB WINDS GREATER THAN 45 KNOTS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 80% IN
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA). HREF MEAN PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE
1.2 INCHES AS A RESULT. LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE AREA BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED
UNTIL THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WIND GUSTS HAVE
TRENDED HIGHER FOR TODAY, HOWEVER, WITH HIRES SOUNDING PROFILES
SHOWING SOME INCREASED MIXING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING
AS THE INVERSION THAT SETS UP OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK
WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. THIS WOULD
ALLOW SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX DOWN. WHILE HIRES
GUIDANCE WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY OVER-MIXING TO SOME EXTENT, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A WINDOW AFTER SUNRISE WHERE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND WHILE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY, NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG.
KEY MESSAGE #2: PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER BAJA LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM THE GULF.
OVERALL THINKING REMAINS THE SAME WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SHOW AROUND 60-70% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAIN.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER REMAINS VERY LOW AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A COMPETITION BETWEEN COLD AIR DAMMING POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH AND
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH. STILL WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD,
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
SURFACE FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO THE AREA
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS, CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN LOWERING DURING THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
REMAIN WITHIN VFR OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AREAS. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT MORE CONFIDENT IN LOW END VFR AT THIS TIME.
AS THE MAIN FRONT PUSHES EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE AREA, CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS TURNING
NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET, THEN WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
SOME AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
STRONGER WINDS AROUND 2KFT AS LOW-LEVEL JET GETS STRONGER AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, BUT AT THIS TIME SURFACE WINDS APPEAR TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION OF ANY LLWS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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