020
FXUS62 KCAE 111722
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1222 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS WELL
ON TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION FOR THE
18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- 2) A SOAKING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LOOKING AT SURFACE OBS, THE COLD FRONT THAT IS BRINGING WITH IT
GUSTY WINDS AND RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE UPSTATE NOW,
PROBABLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS DOESN'T
CHANGE THE FORECAST TOO MUCH, THOUGH, AS GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. WE'VE SEEN FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH THIS MORNING, AND THIS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE PERSISTING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITHIN FAVORABLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND PWS IN THE 1.1"-1.3" RANGE. WHILE THERE IS A LOT
OF PRECIP AROUND, IT REALLY IS NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH AT ALL.
REALLY ONLY EXPECTING UPWARDS OF 0.2" AND THAT REALLY SEEMS LIKE
IT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC. MOST WILL SEE LESS THAN 0.1" OF TOTAL
PRECIP FROM THIS EVENT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, USHERING IN DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SO EXPECT RAIN TO GENERALLY BE DONE AFTER 4P FOR MOST
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: A SOAKING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
BEHIND TODAY'S SYSTEM, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE AS A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS TRANSPIRES, A COMPLEX AND
UNUSUALLY UNCERTAIN SYNOPTIC SETUP SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO
EMERGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US BY FRIDAY, PUSHING EASTWARD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO, WELL, MODEL
CORRECTLY AS THEY ARE IN DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS. AS SUCH, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEVOID OF CONSISTENCY AS IT PERTAINS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE BAJA LOW & IS SURFACE LOW AND THE
STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE PRECEDING SURFACE HIGH. HOWEVER,
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES, LREF
CLUSTERS AND ENSEMBLES IN GENERAL ARE SHOWING A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR MODERATE RAIN ON SUNDAY. PROBABILITIES OF >0.5" OF RAINFALL
ARE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA, MEANING THAT REGARDLESS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DISCREPANCIES, THE VARIOUS OUTCOMES ALL
YIELD A NICE, SOAKING RAINFALL ON SUNDAY. OUR CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW GOES AND HOW
STRONG THE PRECEDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS. THERE
REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY SIGNAL WITHIN ML GUIDANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN, THIS IS JUST SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
NOW.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GENERALLY MVFR OR VFR AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT BY MID-AFTERNOON.
A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
PRODUCING SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE TAF SITES;
SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE MAINLY FROM 4-5SM
VSBY, CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3K FEET GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
THESE SHOULD STEADILY DRY UP AFTER 20Z WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SWINGS WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS STEADILY WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...42
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