593
FXUS62 KCAE 112353
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
653 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING.
- 2) A SOAKING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE NC/SC PIEDMONT. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WE WILL SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS BUT THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS ENDED WITH DRIER AIR RUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. AFTER 9 PM, RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: A SOAKING RAIN APPEARS
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
BEHIND TODAY'S SYSTEM, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE AS A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS TRANSPIRES, A COMPLEX AND
UNUSUALLY UNCERTAIN SYNOPTIC SETUP SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO
EMERGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US BY FRIDAY, PUSHING EASTWARD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO, WELL, MODEL
CORRECTLY AS THEY ARE IN DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS. AS SUCH, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEVOID OF CONSISTENCY AS IT PERTAINS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE BAJA LOW & IS SURFACE LOW AND THE
STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE PRECEDING SURFACE HIGH. HOWEVER,
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES, LREF
CLUSTERS AND ENSEMBLES IN GENERAL ARE SHOWING A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR MODERATE RAIN ON SUNDAY. PROBABILITIES OF >0.5" OF RAINFALL
ARE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA, MEANING THAT REGARDLESS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DISCREPANCIES, THE VARIOUS OUTCOMES ALL
YIELD A NICE, SOAKING RAINFALL ON SUNDAY. OUR CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW GOES AND HOW
STRONG THE PRECEDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS. THERE
REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY SIGNAL WITHIN ML GUIDANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN, THIS IS JUST SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
NOW.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD....
ALL TERMINALS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS
AND RAIN MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY SO UPDATED THE TAFS TO
SHOW THIS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...07
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