169
FXUS62 KCAE 120615
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
115 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A SOAKING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A SOAKING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
BEHIND TODAY'S SYSTEM, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE AS A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS TRANSPIRES, A COMPLEX AND
UNUSUALLY UNCERTAIN SYNOPTIC SETUP SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO
EMERGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US BY FRIDAY, PUSHING EASTWARD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO, WELL, MODEL
CORRECTLY AS THEY ARE IN DATA SPARSE LOCATIONS. AS SUCH, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEVOID OF CONSISTENCY AS IT PERTAINS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE BAJA LOW & IS SURFACE LOW AND THE
STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE PRECEDING SURFACE HIGH. HOWEVER,
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES, LREF
CLUSTERS AND ENSEMBLES IN GENERAL ARE SHOWING A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR MODERATE RAIN ON SUNDAY. PROBABILITIES OF >0.5" OF RAINFALL
ARE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA, MEANING THAT REGARDLESS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DISCREPANCIES, THE VARIOUS OUTCOMES ALL
YIELD A NICE, SOAKING RAINFALL ON SUNDAY. OUR CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW GOES AND HOW
STRONG THE PRECEDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS. THERE
REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY SIGNAL WITHIN ML GUIDANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN, THIS IS JUST SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
NOW.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND AN EXITING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, THEN
TURNING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE SOME THIN
CIRRUS TRACKING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...73
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