126
FXUS62 KCAE 120627
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
127 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY AND
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A DRY AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION TO ROUND OUT THE
WORK WEEK, LEADING TO LOW-END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- 2) MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A DRY AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION TO ROUND
OUT THE WORK WEEK, LEADING TO LOW-END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT, DEWPOINTS ARE POISED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH THE DAY. VALUES WHICH WERE IN THE MID 50S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BY HALF OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING, LEADING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 25% TO 35%
RANGE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE
AREA, WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 20% AND 25%. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING OVERALL WEAK AT
LESS THAN 10 MPH, THERE ISN'T ANY ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR FIRE
WEATHER STATEMENTS OR PRODUCTS TODAY. FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO FEATURE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE #2: MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THOUGH SOME RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING US SOME ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INITIALLY, CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY BE IMPACTED BY THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE THE FINER DETAILS ARE STILL COMING INTO FOCUS WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO SOME TIMING AND EVOLUTION DISCREPANCIES
IN THE GLOBAL MODELS, NBM PROBABILITIES OF >0.25" OF 6-HR RAINFALL
ARE 60% TO 70% ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. IN FACT, THE 48-HOUR RAINFALL PROBABILITIES OF >0.75" ARE
70% TO 90% ENDING 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THESE NUMBERS, STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BRING PWAT VALUES 200-225%
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND VERY HIGH CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. THE LATEST THINKING REGARDING TIMING APPEARS
TO BE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANY CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS AND HOW STRONG THE PRECEDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS. GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN MODERATE TO
SEVERE DROUGHT, THINGS MAY BE LOOKING UP FOR THE AREA TO RECEIVE
SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND AN EXITING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, THEN
TURNING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE SOME THIN
CIRRUS TRACKING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...73
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