379
FXUS62 KCAE 121743
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1243 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A DRY AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION TO ROUND OUT THE
WORK WEEK, LEADING TO LOW-END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- 2) MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS LOCKED IN A GENERAL 0.5"-1.0"
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHER TOTALS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A DRY AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION TO ROUND
OUT THE WORK WEEK, LEADING TO LOW-END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH
GOES DERIVED PWS <0.4" ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH,
WE HAVE MIXED VERY EFFICIENTLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S,
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RH VALUES <30% ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON FRIDAY, THE CORE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD BE PASSING NEAR THE AREA, WITH SIMILARLY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE AREA. SO EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF RH VALUES IN THE
LOW 20% RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THOSE PLANNING PRESCRIBED
BURNS (OR EVEN DOING SMALL BURNS IN THEIR BACKYARDS), BE AWARE
OF THE FORECAST OF LOW RH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS BOTH DAYS LOOK LIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
DANGER FOR FIRE SPREAD AT A MINIMUM.
KEY MESSAGE #2: MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS LOCKED IN A
GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHER TOTALS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING
STORM THIS WEEKEND, WITH A BAJA LOW EJECTING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN US ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO,
OUR SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST
OF THE CONUS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AND LEAD TO A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND 500 HPA TROUGH. THESE FEATURES SHOULD ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA GRADUALLY
DURING THE DAY. THIS TENDS TO BE A SIGNAL IN WHICH WE WOULD
ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST IN-SITU WEDGING. HOWEVER, THE
EXACT DETAILS OF THIS SETUP REALLY DON'T FAVOR STRONG WEDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. NOW EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO
ACTUALLY END UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS GENERALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED HERE WITH STRONG WARM AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION. LREF CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS AREA FEATURES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF >1" OF RAIN
(~40-50% CHANCE). THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD AT LEAST SEE A
GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND GIVEN WE'LL BE SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT (MORE THAN LIKELY). SO OVERALL, THIS EVENT DOES NOT
LOOK SUPER IMPACTFUL. INSTEAD, WE SHOULD SEE A NICE, BENEFICIAL
RAIN EVENT THAT WE REALLY NEED.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONSEQUENTLY
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF WITH
A SOLID NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPING. WINDS EVENTUALLY
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A NOTABLE RAIN MAKER MOVING INTO
THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...42
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