036
FXUS62 KCAE 122340
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1 AND AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
- 2) MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS LOCKED IN A GENERAL 0.5"-1.0"
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHER TOTALS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE STARTING TO RECOVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH PWATS AT DAYBREAK EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER, ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION, WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER TO A MINIMUM, BUT APPROPRIATE
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE IF BURNING ON FRIDAY. MODEST MOISTURE
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE #2: MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS LOCKED IN A
GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHER TOTALS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING
STORM THIS WEEKEND, WITH A BAJA LOW EJECTING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN US ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO,
OUR SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST
OF THE CONUS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AND LEAD TO A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND 500 HPA TROUGH. THESE FEATURES SHOULD ARRIVE BY
SUNDAY, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA GRADUALLY
DURING THE DAY. THIS TENDS TO BE A SIGNAL IN WHICH WE WOULD
ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST IN-SITU WEDGING. HOWEVER, THE
EXACT DETAILS OF THIS SETUP REALLY DON'T FAVOR STRONG WEDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. NOW EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO
ACTUALLY END UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS GENERALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED HERE WITH STRONG WARM AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION. LREF CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS AREA FEATURES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF >1" OF RAIN
(~40-50% CHANCE). THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD AT LEAST SEE A
GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND GIVEN WE'LL BE SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT (MORE THAN LIKELY). SO OVERALL, THIS EVENT DOES NOT
LOOK SUPER IMPACTFUL. INSTEAD, WE SHOULD SEE A NICE, BENEFICIAL
RAIN EVENT THAT WE REALLY NEED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME INTERMITTENT CIRRUS WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY ON FRIDAY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP FROM
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 9 KNOTS AFTER 15Z THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT TOWARDS 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A NOTABLE RAIN MAKER MOVING INTO
THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
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