621
FXUS62 KCAE 130625
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
125 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED. DEWPOINTS WERE DECREASED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE WEEKEND RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- 2) BENEFICIAL RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A
GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. PWATS THROUGH THE DAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE 0.25" TO 0.4"
RANGE, WITH PERHAPS THE LOW END OF THIS RANGE PERSISTING THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, NBM GUIDANCE
INDICATES DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT
OF THE 10TH PERCENTILE NBM WAS BLENDED TO LOWER THESE VALUES
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER TEENS, PARTICULARLY GIVEN VALUES ON THURSDAY
WERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS SUCH, FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20% TO 25% RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME SPOTS COULD SEE VALUES FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IF WE DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER TO A MINIMUM, BUT APPROPRIATE
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF BURNING TODAY. MODEST MOISTURE
RECOVERY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT, PWAT VALUES SHOULD INCREASE,
REACHING 0.5"-0.75" BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH DEWPOINTS FOLLOWING SUIT
AND REACHING THE 40S AROUND THE SAME TIME.
KEY MESSAGE #2: BENEFICIAL RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A
GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH AND BAJA LOW EJECTING
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR NEARLY COAST TO COAST OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REACHING THE SOUTHEAST, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO
USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE, REACHING
VALUES POTENTIALLY 200+% OF NORMAL BY SUNDAY MORNING. INITIAL PRECIP
SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT, WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS (LREF
MEMBERS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IS GENERALLY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS, PEE DEE
REGION AND INTO THE UPSTATE. LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED HERE WITH
STRONG WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
INDICATES >50% PROBABILITIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA AREA FOR
>1" OF RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THE THINKING REMAINS THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE BETWEEN 0.5" AND 1" OF RAINFALL OVER THE
COURSE OF THIS EVENT, WITH, AS IS TYPICAL, SOME HIGHER AND LOWER
BULLSEYES OF ACCUMULATION. AT THIS TIME, WPC HAS PLACED THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5% CHANCE) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LEADING TO SOME FLOODING IMPACTS. EXPECT DETAILS
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL THREAT TO COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LASTLY, THERE IS A LOW LIKELIHOOD FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
LIMITED. AT THIS POINT, ANY RAINFALL WILL BE HELPFUL TO MAKE
EVEN A SLIGHT DENT IN OUR CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE, THOUGH ADDITIONAL EVENTS LIKE THIS (WITH OVERALL LOW
IMPACTS) WILL BE NEEDED TO SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE OUR DROUGHT
RATING.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION, BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO SHOW FEW TO SCT CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WITH A COUPLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS, AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH A COUPLE SPOTS GOING CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AROUND 5-9 KTS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD. FEW CIRRUS MAY MOVE BACK IN TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MOST
LIKELY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
IN, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...17
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