595
FXUS62 KCAE 131103
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
603 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- 2) BENEFICIAL RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A
GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. PWATS THROUGH THE DAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE 0.25" TO 0.4"
RANGE, WITH PERHAPS THE LOW END OF THIS RANGE PERSISTING THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, NBM GUIDANCE
INDICATES DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT
OF THE 10TH PERCENTILE NBM WAS BLENDED TO LOWER THESE VALUES
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER TEENS, PARTICULARLY GIVEN VALUES ON THURSDAY
WERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS SUCH, FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20% TO 25% RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME SPOTS COULD SEE VALUES FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IF WE DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER TO A MINIMUM, BUT APPROPRIATE
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF BURNING TODAY. MODEST MOISTURE
RECOVERY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT, PWAT VALUES SHOULD INCREASE,
REACHING 0.5"-0.75" BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH DEWPOINTS FOLLOWING SUIT
AND REACHING THE 40S AROUND THE SAME TIME.
KEY MESSAGE #2: BENEFICIAL RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A
GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH AND BAJA LOW EJECTING
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR NEARLY COAST TO COAST OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REACHING THE SOUTHEAST, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO
USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE, REACHING
VALUES POTENTIALLY 200+% OF NORMAL BY SUNDAY MORNING. INITIAL PRECIP
SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT, WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS (LREF
MEMBERS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IS GENERALLY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS, PEE DEE
REGION AND INTO THE UPSTATE. LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED HERE WITH
STRONG WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
INDICATES >50% PROBABILITIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA AREA FOR
>1" OF RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THE THINKING REMAINS THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE BETWEEN 0.5" AND 1" OF RAINFALL OVER THE
COURSE OF THIS EVENT, WITH, AS IS TYPICAL, SOME HIGHER AND LOWER
BULLSEYES OF ACCUMULATION. AT THIS TIME, WPC HAS PLACED THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5% CHANCE) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LEADING TO SOME FLOODING IMPACTS. EXPECT DETAILS
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL THREAT TO COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LASTLY, THERE IS A LOW LIKELIHOOD FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
LIMITED. AT THIS POINT, ANY RAINFALL WILL BE HELPFUL TO MAKE
EVEN A SLIGHT DENT IN OUR CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE, THOUGH ADDITIONAL EVENTS LIKE THIS (WITH OVERALL LOW
IMPACTS) WILL BE NEEDED TO SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE OUR DROUGHT
RATING.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR MORE THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF FEW CIRRUS
JUST TO THE WEST OF AREA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT
20-25 KTS OF FLOW AROUND 300-700 FT, HAVE ALLOWED DNL TO SEE
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 9-11 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 17-19 KTS.
FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES, NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7-10 KTS SHOULD
PICK UP AFTER 13-15Z AS THESE GUSTS FOR DNL ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON, NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
RELAX SOME, CLOSER TO 5-7 KTS AT THE TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING. TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVERHEAD AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM ONCE AGAIN. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT SOME CIRRUS MAY START STREAMING IN TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MOST
LIKELY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...17
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