667
FXUS62 KCAE 131749
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1249 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO KEY MESSAGE 1 & 2.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- 2) BENEFICIAL RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A
GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. RAN WITH A BLEND OF THE NBM10 AND HRRR TO ACCOUNT FOR
DEWPOINTS THAT WERE WAY LOWER THAN THE FORECAST STARTING POINT
EARLIER. AS SUCH, FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
20% TO 25% RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME
SPOTS COULD SEE VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS IF WE DRY OUT EVEN
FURTHER THAN ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER TO A MINIMUM, BUT APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN
IF BURNING TODAY. MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AT
THIS POINT, PWAT VALUES SHOULD INCREASE, REACHING 0.5"-0.75" BY
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH DEWPOINTS FOLLOWING SUIT AND REACHING THE
40S AROUND THE SAME TIME.
KEY MESSAGE #2: BENEFICIAL RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A
GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR OUR SOAKING RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE MID-LEVEL LOW, EJECTING FROM THE BAJA REGION TODAY AND
TOMORROW, AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. OVERALL, GUIDANCE IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF ALL OF THIS BUT THAT
REALLY DOESN'T IMPACT THE OVERALL FORECAST. LREF CLUSTERS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 0.5-1.0" OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS, GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20, WHERE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO
AND ADDS A BIT OF EXTRA FORCING/FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN AS CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST DEVELOPS, MOVES EASTWARD, AND WEAKENS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. THESE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS COULD ENHANCE OVERALL
PRECIP RATES AND ALLOW OTHER AREAS TO APPROACH THE 1" MARK. BUT
OVERALL, A GOOD EXPECTATION IS AROUND 0.5" FOR MOST, WHICH WILL
BE NICE AND BENEFICIAL. BY NEXT WEEK, A MAJOR WARM UP IS ON TAP
WITH LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 90TH PERCENTILE 500 HPA HEIGHTS
AND AT LEAST 98TH PERCENTILE 850 HPA TEMPS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, NO NOTABLE AVIATION
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY MOVE IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MOST
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...42
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