627
FXUS62 KCAE 132348
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 UPDATE AND AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
- 2) BENEFICIAL RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A
GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE DAY, MOVING
OFFSHORE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
LIKELY HIGHER THAN TODAY, WITH GUSTS OF 10-15 MPH POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS SO CAUTION SHOULD
BE USED IF BURNING TOMORROW. CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BUT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST.
KEY MESSAGE #2: BENEFICIAL RAINFALL STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A
GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR OUR SOAKING RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE MID-LEVEL LOW, EJECTING FROM THE BAJA REGION TODAY AND
TOMORROW, AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. OVERALL, GUIDANCE IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF ALL OF THIS BUT THAT
REALLY DOESN'T IMPACT THE OVERALL FORECAST. LREF CLUSTERS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 0.5-1.0" OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS, GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20, WHERE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO
AND ADDS A BIT OF EXTRA FORCING/FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN AS CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST DEVELOPS, MOVES EASTWARD, AND WEAKENS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. THESE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS COULD ENHANCE OVERALL
PRECIP RATES AND ALLOW OTHER AREAS TO APPROACH THE 1" MARK. BUT
OVERALL, A GOOD EXPECTATION IS AROUND 0.5" FOR MOST, WHICH WILL
BE NICE AND BENEFICIAL. BY NEXT WEEK, A MAJOR WARM UP IS ON TAP
WITH LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 90TH PERCENTILE 500 HPA HEIGHTS
AND AT LEAST 98TH PERCENTILE 850 HPA TEMPS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER
CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AND MAY LOWER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MOST
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
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