419
FXUS62 KCAE 141107
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH A GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
- 2) POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS TAKING
SHAPE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH A GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
THE MAIN FORECAST FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
WITH NEAR TERM AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO COME INTO
PLAY, THE EXPECTATION REMAINS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. INITIALLY, ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DRIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRIVES PWATS OF 1"-1.25" OVER THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW NEAR THE FORECAST AREA,
ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL MAKE PRIME TIME FOR THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LREF CLUSTERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING DEPICT >50% PROBABILITIES
OF 0.75" OR HIGHER OF RAINFALL FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS, OR GENERALLY ALONG AND NEAR WHEREVER THE WARM
FRONT ENDS UP TRACKING. AS SUCH, FOR LANCASTER COUNTY THERE IS
ABOUT A 40% PROBABILITY FOR >1" OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FOR COMPARISON, THESE VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO, SO THERE IS A TREND TO WATCH HERE AS THE EVENT NEARS. A
GOOD EXPECTATION IS AROUND 0.50" OF RAINFALL JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE, WITH THE TYPICAL LOCALIZED HIGHER AND LOWER
ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDER AS CONVECTION TO OUR WEST DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE RAIN ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST, AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WE ARE STILL QUITE A BIT BEHIND WHEN IT
COMES TO NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO DATE, 2 TO 3 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR BOTH THE CALENDAR AND WATER YEARS.
SO WHILE WE MAY MAKE AN INCREMENTAL IMPROVEMENT TO DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, WE STILL NEED TO SEE A LOT MORE RAINFALL TO CATCH UP
AND REDUCE THE DROUGHT CATEGORY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
TAKING SHAPE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH, FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES INCREASE. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS, THIS
PATTERN SEEMS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. BOTH THE ENS MEAN
AND NAEFS MEAN 700 MB TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEXT
WEEK ARE ABOVE THE 99.5 PERCENTILE ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE DURING THE SAME PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
BUT CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN THE REGION MUCH OF TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM UNTIL 15-17Z, WHEN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR 3500 TO 5000 FT BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. A STRAY RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY AFTER
08-10Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION INTO THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. CEILING RESTRICTIONS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE IN AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING ON SUNDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS MAY REMAIN INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...17
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