965
FXUS62 KCAE 150019
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
719 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
- 2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
THE LONG DISCUSSED, FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A FAIRLY STRONG COOL SEASON MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND PROPAGATE ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT THANKS TO THE MEDIOCRE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RESERVOIR. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING, SUFFICIENT WAA
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA, WHILE THIS
RESIDUAL MCS REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PWAT'S
AND WAA SHOULD PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF MODERATE RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE HREF
MEMBERS FOR THE MOST PART. QPF TOTALS FROM THIS INITIAL
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHOULD BE AROUND 0.5" BEFORE THE WAA
LIFTS NORTHWARD AFTER 18Z. PWAT'S AND THETA-E WILL CONTINUE
SURGE NORTHWARD AND ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
AS THE COLD FRONT FORCING ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
SOME MORE QUESTION MARKS AS TO HOW THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE MCS PROGRESSION TO
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY DEVELOP. SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT IN THE MIDLANDS, THE HODOGRAPHS AND KINEMATICS
WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE SO THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY ARE THE LIMITED AND UNCERTAIN FACTORS. GIVEN THOSE
IMPRESSIVE HODOGRAPHS, THE 12Z HREF AND REFS SUITES IS NOTABLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND THEREFORE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A LOW END CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS; PARAMETER SPACE WISE THE OVERLAP OF 50-100
0-3KM CAPE AND 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR IS PLAUSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL RISK DRIVEN BY THE LOW END TORNADO
THREAT EXTENDS INTO THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AS A RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THINKING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS
LATER THIS WEEK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MID- WEEK, EXTENDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US. NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILES ARE NEAR THE
MAXIMA FOR HEIGHTS IN THESE REGIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS FAVORS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID- WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
70S ON MULTIPLE DAYS. NBM QMD PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS ABOVE 70
DEGREES ARE ABOVE 80 PERCENT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THURSDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH 80 DEGREE PROBABILITIES
FROM 30 TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN FA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE STEADILY
DETERIORATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS RAIN MOVES IN.
A DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING BUT LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN LOWERING
CIGS AFTER 09Z WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 14Z-15Z. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO
IFR BY 17Z-18Z WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
FAVORING AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME SO
WILL LET LATER FORECASTS EVALUATE FURTHER.
EXTENDED AVIATION
OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN SUNDAY EVENING EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42/CJR
AVIATION...23
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