922
FXUS62 KCAE 150617
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION AND KEY MESSAGE 2 UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
- 2) POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
THE LONG DISCUSSED, FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A FAIRLY STRONG COOL SEASON MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND PROPAGATE ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT THANKS TO THE MEDIOCRE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RESERVOIR. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING, SUFFICIENT WAA
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA, WHILE THIS
RESIDUAL MCS REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS INITIAL SURGE OF PWAT'S
AND WAA SHOULD PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF MODERATE RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE HREF
MEMBERS FOR THE MOST PART. QPF TOTALS FROM THIS INITIAL
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHOULD BE AROUND 0.5" BEFORE THE WAA
LIFTS NORTHWARD AFTER 18Z. PWAT'S AND THETA-E WILL CONTINUE
SURGE NORTHWARD AND ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
AS THE COLD FRONT FORCING ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
SOME MORE QUESTION MARKS AS TO HOW THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE MCS PROGRESSION TO
THE WEST AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY DEVELOP. SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT IN THE MIDLANDS, THE HODOGRAPHS AND KINEMATICS
WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE SO THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY ARE THE LIMITED AND UNCERTAIN FACTORS. GIVEN THOSE
IMPRESSIVE HODOGRAPHS, THE 12Z HREF AND REFS SUITES IS NOTABLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND THEREFORE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A LOW END CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS; PARAMETER SPACE WISE THE OVERLAP OF 50-100
0-3KM CAPE AND 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR IS PLAUSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL RISK DRIVEN BY THE LOW END TORNADO
THREAT EXTENDS INTO THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AS A RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALL FAVOR UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. NAEFS
AND GEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILES CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO THE
MAXIMA FOR 700MB TEMPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH VALUES
GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT 850MB. THIS PERSISTENT SIGNAL
INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE
IN FROM AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NBM HIGHS ARE AROUND 70
BY TUESDAY, THEN WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 70S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS. NBM QMD PROBABILITIES ARE >90%
SOUTHEAST OF I-20 FOR >75 DEGREES ON FRIDAY, WITH STILL IMPRESSIVE
50%-80% PROBABILITIES NORTHWEST OF I-20.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE BUT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MOVE IN AFTER
12-15Z TODAY AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
SYSTEM WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEING NOTED IN OBSERVATIONS
JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS LIKELY CONTINUES MOST OF THE NIGHT
WITH CEILINGS THAT GRADUALLY LOWER AFTER 09-10Z WITH WINDS THAT
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. AS RAIN PUSHES IN BETWEEN
12-14Z, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, CONTINUING MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE MORNING AFTER 15-17Z. GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS AS WELL
MAINLY FOR THE AUGUSTA AND COLUMBIA TERMINALS AFTER 15-17Z AS
THE BULK OF THE RAIN PUSHES IN WHILE THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY TOWARD OGB. WINDS GENERALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-8 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN PUSHES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS WHERE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NEAR AGS/DNL/OGB, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
ADD INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
WITH A SHOT OF "DRIER" AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND
THUS RECENT HRRR, HREF, AND LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY BE SEEN EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW,
BRINGING BACK POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOW MOVING OVERHEAD ALSO WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD, BUT CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
REMAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...17
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