051
FXUS62 KCAE 151111
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
611 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST OF
TODAY, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5"-1" STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- 2) POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
MOST OF TODAY, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5"-1" STILL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE SOME ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
SHOW UP ON RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN TOO
DRY WITH RH VALUES BETWEEN 50% AND 65% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND ANY
RAIN TRYING TO FALL IS LIKELY EVAPORATING. THAT SAID, ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH
THE COLUMN. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW. HREF MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL WITH THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM THIS INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN
SHOULD BE AROUND 0.5", WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE NORTH
AND WEST OF I-20 AND LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST. AROUND
18Z THIS AFTERNOON, A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE'LL LIKELY THEN
SEE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
100-300 J/KG OF SBCAPE POSSIBLE IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY IN THIS
REGION. ADDITIONALLY, SPC IS CARRYING GENERAL THUNDER FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) NOSING IN THE CSRA AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH STORMS THAT ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT, HODOGRAPHS LOOK FAVORABLE AND 0-3KM SRH APPROACHES 200 M2/S2,
SO IT WOULD APPEAR INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTORS. A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT IS THEREFORE PLAUSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS SHOULD ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. THAT SAID, THE ABSENCE OF ONE OR MORE
VARIABLES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SECOND BATCH OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE A
BIT SHORTER-LIVED IN NATURE, BUT PACK A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS. HREF MEMBERS MOVE THE
BULK OF RAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z TONIGHT, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING OVERHEAD INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5"-1" WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
1.25" LOOK TO BE REASONABLE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE #2: POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALL FAVOR UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. NAEFS
AND GEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILES CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO THE
MAXIMA FOR 700MB TEMPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH VALUES
GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT 850MB. THIS PERSISTENT SIGNAL
INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE
IN FROM AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NBM HIGHS ARE AROUND 70
BY TUESDAY, THEN WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 70S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS. NBM QMD PROBABILITIES ARE >90%
SOUTHEAST OF I-20 FOR >75 DEGREES ON FRIDAY, WITH STILL IMPRESSIVE
50%-80% PROBABILITIES NORTHWEST OF I-20.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE STATING TO MOVE IN THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AND RAIN SLOWLY
CREEPS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WINDS GENERALLY SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-8 KTS. RAIN IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 13-15Z AND WITH THIS,
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CEILINGS CONTINUING TO
FALL TOWARD IFR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AS WELL. AS WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AGS/DNL/OGB, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD INTO THE TAF. THE SURFACE LOW
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH A SHOT OF "DRIER" AIR STILL BEING SHOWN IN
RECENT HRRR, HREF, LAMP, AND NOW NBM GUIDANCE. THIS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST POSSIBLE BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS BETWEEN
21Z-02Z, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT COULD BE SEEN
REMAINS. THE LOW MOVING IN WILL ALSO BRING A FAIRLY QUICK WIND
SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT BETWEEN 02-05Z
GENERALLY, BUT CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH SOME
IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SEEN AFTER 08-10Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...17
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