207
FXUS62 KCAE 151801
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5"-1" STILL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- 2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5"-1" STILL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LONG DISCUSSED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS OUR AREA, DRIVING SOME WIDESPREAD AND
NOTABLE WAA ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PWAT'S OVER 1.25" THIS HAS
PRODUCED CONSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WAA IS NOW LIFTING NORTH, WITH
THE MORE CONVECTION AND FRONTAL DRIVEN PRECIP MOVING ACROSS GA.
AHEAD OF THIS, STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LESS PRECIP IS
ALLOWING SOME 60+ DEW POINTS AND GENERALLY A HIGH PLUME OF
THETA-E TO PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA. WITHIN THIS HIGH THETA-E
SURFACE AIR, SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING AND WILL
LIKELY STRENGTHEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT'S NOT EXACTLY CLEAR HOW
FAR NORTH THIS INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE
HREF AND MORE RECENT HRRR RUNS REMAIN BULLISH, PUSHING THE
SEVERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. WHILE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO BULLISH GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND MEDIOCRE SURFACE WINDS, SOME OF THIS
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CLIP OUR AREA. NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE
APPROACHING LOW AND STRONG 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
HODOGRAPHS ARE IMPRESSIVE AND SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER. SO
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3PM AND 7PM, A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
SHOWERS AND ANY ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER ROUGHLY
8PM.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
LREF SPREAD IN 500 MB HEIGHTS HAS DECREASED FOR NEXT WEEK
INDICATING A BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
ABOVE 70 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BREAKING INTO THE 80S IN THAT
LATTER TIMEFRAME. RECORD HIGHS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ROUGHLY 01Z
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS.
THE HEAVIES BATCH OF PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FROM 19Z THROUGH 21Z
FOR AGS AND DNL, 20-23Z FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES WITH IFR AND
LIFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DURING THAT PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE A BIT
BROKEN AND SCATTERED SO A MIX OF PREDOMINANT AND TEMPO
RESTRICTIONS TO REPRESENT THIS FOR ALL SITES SEEMS APPROPRIATE.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AT AGS, DNL AND
OGB BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION RIGHT NOW, AGAIN
DURING THOSE SAME HEAVY RAIN PERIODS. WHILE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT
AFTER 01Z, IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42/CJR/96
AVIATION...42/96
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