316
FXUS62 KCAE 160025
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
725 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA DRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
USHERS IN DRIER AIR.
- 2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT USHERS IN DRIER AIR.
UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA WITH A FRONT ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BORDER. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION REMAINED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
DECAYING QLCS. AS THE AREA BECOMES MORE STABLE INTO TONIGHT,
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN AREA HAVE BECOME LESS LIKELY, WITH
A FEW STRIKES OBSERVED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW CONTINUING
INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH RATES ARE MOSTLY LIGHT CURRENTLY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST,
LIKELY ENDING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
LREF SPREAD IN 500 MB HEIGHTS HAS DECREASED FOR NEXT WEEK
INDICATING A BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
ABOVE 70 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BREAKING INTO THE 80S IN THAT
LATTER TIMEFRAME. RECORD HIGHS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO
THE EVENING.
THE FORECAST STARTS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRING IFR CIGS BACK INTO THE PICTURE
THROUGH AROUND 07Z-09Z. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z, ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT OGB FROM
14Z-18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTH AFTER 09Z AND COULD
BE GUSTY MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR/96
AVIATION...23
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