372
FXUS62 KCAE 160610
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
110 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTATION OF A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS
WEEK. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN RAIN CHANCES START TO
INCREASE AGAIN CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
LREF 500 MB HEIGHT INTERQUARTILE RANGE REMAINS LESS THAN 3 DAM
THROUGH THURSDAY, INDICATING GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. GIVEN THIS PATTERN FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND STRONG UPPER RIDGING FOR THIS PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. LREF MAX T INTERQUARTILE RANGES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 4
DEGREES FOR CAE THROUGH THURSDAY, AND ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER AT 5
DEGREES ON FRIDAY. NBM TEMPERATURES SHOW HIGHS REACHING AROUND 70 BY
TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING BY 2 OR 3 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS BY THE END OF THE WEEK ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
80S, AND NBM PROBABILITIES OF 80 DEGREES OR HIGHER ARE NOTABLY 50%
TO 75% SOUTHEAST OF I-20 ON FRIDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AND THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK
OR THIS WEEKEND.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
SUGGESTS THE NEXT DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TO BE LATE THIS WEEK OR
PERHAPS THIS WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS, SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT WE'LL SEE
MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY GIVEN A
LACK OF FORCING AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING. THERE MAY BE A BIT
MORE POTENTIAL BY THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SINK
INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA, AND PW VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER BY THEN AS WELL. HOWEVER, A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IN
THE WAY OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND PRECEDING DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
APPEARS MOST LIKELY TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 08-10Z BEFORE
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATER THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE NOW SEEN AT ALL TAF
SITES AS RAIN CLEARS THE AREA WITH A FRONT WORKING THROUGH AND
7-10 KT WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THESE RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 08-10Z WHEN DOWNSLOPING
FLOW HELPS SCOUR OUT THESE LOW CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. OGB MAY LINGER IN MVFR CEILINGS A BIT LATER INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR. GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT A
35-40 KT LLJ WILL SET UP BETWEEN 09-13Z AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS,
STRONGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. DUE TO THIS,
MENTION OF LLWS WAS ADDED TO THE TAF FOR THE COLUMBIA AND
AUGUSTA TERMINALS AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR 40 KTS OF FLOW
AROUND 2000 FT IS HIGHEST HERE. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AS MIXING OCCURS AFTER 14Z,
SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEFORE
WINDS RELAX INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL FOG TUESDAY MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...17
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