461
FXUS62 KCAE 161056
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
556 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
LREF 500 MB HEIGHT INTERQUARTILE RANGE REMAINS LESS THAN 3 DAM
THROUGH THURSDAY, INDICATING GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. GIVEN THIS PATTERN FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND STRONG UPPER RIDGING FOR THIS PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. LREF MAX T INTERQUARTILE RANGES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 4
DEGREES FOR CAE THROUGH THURSDAY, AND ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER AT 5
DEGREES ON FRIDAY. NBM TEMPERATURES SHOW HIGHS REACHING AROUND 70 BY
TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING BY 2 OR 3 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS BY THE END OF THE WEEK ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
80S, AND NBM PROBABILITIES OF 80 DEGREES OR HIGHER ARE NOTABLY 50%
TO 75% SOUTHEAST OF I-20 ON FRIDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AND THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK
OR THIS WEEKEND.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
SUGGESTS THE NEXT DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TO BE LATE THIS WEEK OR
PERHAPS THIS WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS, SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT WE'LL SEE
MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY GIVEN A
LACK OF FORCING AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING. THERE MAY BE A BIT
MORE POTENTIAL BY THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SINK
INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA, AND PW VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER BY THEN AS WELL. HOWEVER, A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IN
THE WAY OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND PRECEDING DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
APPEARS MOST LIKELY TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS REAPPEARING WITH LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
OGB FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRATUS DECK
CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA TERMINALS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING HERE. OGB IS NEARING THE EDGE OF
THIS DECK AND SHOULD SEE VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL, BUT SOME MORE
STRATUS MAY PIVOT IN OVER THE COMING HOURS, BRINGING
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. THE VAD PROFILE FROM
KCAE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN 37-40 KTS OF FLOW AROUND 2000 FT AND
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS, HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAF AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL UNTIL 14Z WHEN
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 16-18Z. AFTER THIS, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS RELAX
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM, WHERE GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING SOME FOG POTENTIAL, BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL FOG TUESDAY MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...17
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