658
FXUS62 KCAE 162309
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
609 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL STEADILY WARM, PUSHING RECORD HIGHS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. BROAD RIDGING AND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIVE CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE REGION AND
DRIVE 500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE IN
THE NAEFS; EC EFI LINES UP WELL NOT SURPRISINGLY, WITH A
TYPICAL HIGH EFI BUT RELATIVELY LOW SOT. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER THIS WILL YIELD TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70'S FOR MID-
WEEK AND THEN PUSHING 80F BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK
AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
EVENTUALLY THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION
WILL DRIVE PWAT'S BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. QUESTIONS CONTINUE ON EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THE DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGHS WILL EJECT EASTWARD, WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHEN
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN WILL REACH OUR
AREA. WITHIN THE GEFS AND ECE, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, BUT
EVENTUALLY THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY, THE NBM IS EFFECTIVELY
SMOOTHING OUT POP'S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, SO IN ACTUALITY
RAIN WILL NOT OCCUR EVERYDAY, RATHER IN A SHORTER WINDOW.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB, OTHERWISE VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING WINDS
TO GO LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINFALL, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY MVFR BR FORMATION
AT OUR USUAL LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB TOWARDS MORNING, IN ADDITION
TO SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG AT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. OUTSIDE
OF A FEW CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY, SKIES
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEAKER GUSTS THAN SEEN THE PREVIOUS
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK
LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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