086
FXUS62 KCAE 171755
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1255 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF. KEY MESSAGES UPDATED
AND REORGANIZED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- 2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
A FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MID-WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WITH PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THE FRONT WON'T MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PWAT VALUES
FROM THE NAEFS RISE TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY AND
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
SUPPORTS SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, BUT THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY KEEPS THE OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK
WITHOUT BELABORING THE POINT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE
80S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANY RESIDUAL MORNING FOG HAS BURNED OFF AS OF 16Z, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED 5-7 WITH
SOME GUSTS OVER 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL FALL OFF OVERNIGHT AS A
MODEST INVERSION SETS UP, BUT WINDS AROUND 2K FEET WILL STILL
REMAIN AROUND 25-30 KNOTS; NOT QUITE LLWS CRITERIA, BUT NOT FAR
OFF. SOME PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY AT AGS, IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
NOTABLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK
LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN IS TRENDING TOWARD THE LATE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...17/CJR
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