361
FXUS62 KCAE 181115
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
- 2) RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BUT THE AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD
FALL SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AN ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MULTIPLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND PUSH EASTWARD NORTH OF A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH
THAT IS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER. WHILE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
SPREAD WITHIN LREF GUIDANCE REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM
STRETCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE INTO
THE 90TH-99TH PERCENTILE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD
YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S OR LOW 80S EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY,
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TODAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED TODAY FROM 10A THROUGH 7P FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BUT THE
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE EASTERN US THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, A WARM AND
MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT LEAST) IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AS SUCH,
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, THOUGH
GENERALLY THINK THE NBM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL POPS.
EVEN IF IT ISN'T, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE BEST FORCING SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR NORTH AT THIS POINT & THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY
BEGIN STRETCHING OUT. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN IT WAS 24H AGO ON THE SPECIFICS FOR RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND BUT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REVEAL A LOT
OF SPREAD AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES FOR THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CAMPS THAT LREF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL
INTO RIGHT NOW: 1) IS A DEEPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE DIGGING
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY, OR 2) A LESS
AMPLIFIED WAVE THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THESE TWO WOULD HAVE PRETTY STARK IMPACTS ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, WITH SCENARIO 1 YIELDING A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND DEEPENING AS IT PUSHING
OUT TO SEA. WIDESPREAD RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. SCENARIO 2 WOULD HAVE LESSER
RAIN OVERALL. LOOKING AT THE WHOLE OF GUIDANCE, IT SEEMS THAT
A SORT OF BLEND BETWEEN THESE TWO IS LIKELY, WHICH WOULD STILL
RESULT IN RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA BUT REALLY NOT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE DENTING THE DROUGHT. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THIS IS UP IN THE
AIR AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH ON THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATCHY MORNING FOG/STRATUS LINGERS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE PERIODS
OF MVFR CEILINGS NEAR AGS/DNL LATER THIS MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN WITH THE 25-30 KT
LLJ IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PERIODS OF STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
MOVED THROUGH AGS/OGB OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THESE
GENERALLY CLEAR. A BKN TO OVC DECK AROUND 5000 FT HAS BEGUN
MOVING INTO THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH
OF THE DAY WITH SOME SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500 TO 3500 FT
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS WHERE BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND 14Z UNTIL 18Z. 10-15 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 16Z. THESE WINDS SHOULD
RELAX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
LIKELY AS SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN WITH A BKN TO OVC
CIRRUS DECK. AS MOISTURE RAMPS OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS AROUND 4000
TO 5000 FT COULD DEVELOP AGAIN WHERE MORE MORNING FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT MAINLY NEAR OGB AND AGS AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THURSDAY, THE MAIN RAIN CHANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...17
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