945
FXUS62 KCAE 181733
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1233 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES 1 AND 2 UPDATED AND KEY MESSAGE 3 ADDED. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BREEZY AND VERY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES ON SATURDAY.
- 3) COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BREEZY AND VERY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY.
PARTIAL SUNSHINE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES, AIDED BY BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. BREEZY
AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TODAY EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON
AREA LAKES, WHICH HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY AREA WEBCAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. WINDS APPEAR TO BE LOWER ON THURSDAY BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE WARMING TREND PEAKS ON
FRIDAY, DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
KEY MESSAGE #2: CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES ON
SATURDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES ON FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BUT SHOULD
STALL NEAR/OVER THE FA. THE NBM CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SO OPTED TO CAP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE
UPPER PATTERN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND BUT IT
APPEARS THAT SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THE EURO FAVORING LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND THE GFS SUGGESTING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE RAIN SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE #3: COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD AND
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN FOLLOW BY A GRADUAL WARM UP
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY MAY ALSO BE BREEZY DUE
TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD BUT
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A MIX OF LOWER AND HIGHER CLOUDS WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS AROUND 5KFT TO 6KFT
BUT THERE IS A BAND OF LOWER CIGS MOVING THROUGH THE CSRA AND
MIDLANDS WHICH MAY BRING INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT OGB. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AND PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS.
THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS IN GUIDANCE REGARDING POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH HRRR AND MET GUIDANCE SHOWING CIGS
DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR AND SREF SHOWING SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES
BUT NBM AND LAV AND MAV GUIDANCE KEEPS VFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN IN LATER FORECASTS AS THERE IS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THURSDAY, THE MAIN RAIN CHANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...23
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