224
FXUS62 KCAE 182333
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST HOUR, SO THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 6 PM. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BREEZY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES ON SATURDAY.
- 3) COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BREEZY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
BREEZY AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TODAY EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS APPEAR TO BE LOWER ON THURSDAY
BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
WARMING TREND PEAKS ON FRIDAY, DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
KEY MESSAGE #2: CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES ON
SATURDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES ON FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BUT SHOULD
STALL NEAR/OVER THE FA. THE NBM CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SO OPTED TO CAP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY SINCE THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE
UPPER PATTERN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND BUT IT
APPEARS THAT SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THE EURO FAVORING LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND THE GFS SUGGESTING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE RAIN SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE #3: COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD AND
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN FOLLOW BY A GRADUAL WARM UP
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY MAY ALSO BE BREEZY DUE
TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD BUT
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECOUPLE WITH SUNSET, AND THUS WIND GUSTS
HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
BY 03Z, REMAINING THERE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MID-MORNING THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK BACK UP AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS,
AND ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS BACK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.
AS FOR CLOUDS, BROKEN STRATUS AROUND 6KFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME SCATTERING EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE THEN CONTINUES TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OF THOSE BROKEN
VFR CEILINGS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. IN ADDITION, MVFR STRATUS BEING
INDICATED JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL, AND EVEN CAE/CUB AROUND THE
SAME TIME, WITH POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO THOSE TAF SITES THROUGH
15Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW AT CAE/CUB DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER AT AGS/DNL, HAVE GONE WITH A
PREDOMINANT GROUP STARTING AT 12Z THROUGH 16Z. MIXING BY 16Z
SHOULD SCOURER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS, WITH THE VFR STRATUS
REMAINING THROUGH THE DAY EVERYWHERE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THURSDAY, THE MAIN RAIN CHANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/29
AVIATION...73
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