984
FXUS62 KCAE 191117
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
617 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BREEZY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- 3) COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BREEZY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DEEP AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED OUR WEATHER
TO HAVE A TOUCH OF SPRING IN IT. HIGHS HAVE BEEN IN THE 70S THE
LAST TWO DAYS, AND WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW! HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR BUT LOW-LEVEL TEMPS ARE VERY ANOMALOUSLY WARM. 850
HPA TEMPS ARE 95TH-98TH PERCENTILE IN THE LREF MEAN DATA, WHICH
SHOULD YIELD VERY WARM TEMPS. ECE EFI GUIDANCE SHOWS VALUES OF
0.6-0.7 TODAY AND 0.8-0.9 TOMORROW, BOTH WITH LOW SHIFT OF TAILS
VALUES. SO WE CAN EXPECT ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPS THAT PROBABLY
WON'T BE BREAKING RECORDS, WHICH MAKES SENSE. LOTS OF CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND TODAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
BOTH DAYS (ESP. FRIDAY MORNING). THIS WILL LIKELY HINDER US FROM
REACHING WHATEVER OUR CEILING FOR HIGH TEMPS WOULD BE OTHERWISE.
STILL, EXPECTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON A SOLUTION TO THIS WEEKEND'S
MAJOR WEATHER QUESTION - RAIN, RAIN AMOUNTS, AND RAIN TIMING.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS LOWER THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO, AND THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ALIGN MORE CLOSELY. THE LARGER
SCALE EXPECTATION FOR THIS WEEKEND IS THAT WEAKENING FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH INCREASINGLY HIGH PWS AHEAD OF
IT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO ON
FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. DON'T REALLY THINK EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AS THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL BE WEAKENING & THE SYNOPTIC FORCING SHOULD BE
MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT IS
IMPORTANT TO THE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. IT LOOKS TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR A BATCH OF HEAVIER RAIN ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING A TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND FORCES
A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH INTO THE
ATLANTIC. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
850 HPA JET IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY;
THE LOCATION OF THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL HELP DICTATE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE TOTALS SHOULD BE
0.25"-0.5" AS THIS SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION. LREF CLUSTERS
ARE ALL SHOWING ABOUT A 30-50% CHANCE OF 0.5" OR MORE OF TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS, WHICH WILL BE BENEFICIAL CONSIDERING THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
OVERALL, THOUGH, AS THE PARENT SYSTEM DRIVING THIS IS QUITE
COMPLEX & GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO AMPLIFY THESE SYSTEMS GRADUALLY
AS WE APPROACH THEM OF LATE. SO, GIVEN OUR PROXIMITY TO ROBUST
PWS, IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF WE SAW OVER FORECAST RAIN
TOTALS TICK UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE #3: COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD AND
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN FOLLOW BY A GRADUAL WARM UP
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY MAY ALSO BE BREEZY DUE
TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS STARTING TO BUILD IN THIS MORNING, LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN. POSSIBLE THAT STRATUS BUILDS IN AGAIN TONIGHT.
STRATUS HAS BEGUN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS ALREADY SEEN AT AGS/DNL. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXPAND TOWARD CAE/CUB OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS THERE ARE A COUPLE SITES IN CENTRAL GA
WITH CEILINGS CLOSER TO 800 TO 1000 FT SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD REMAIN
CLOSER TO 1500 TO 2500 FT. THE TEMPO GROUP AFTER 14Z REMAINS AT
OGB AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE HOURS
OF MVFR CEILINGS HERE. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM 4-6 KTS AND AFTER 16-18Z SHOULD PICK UP TO 8-12 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE DAY. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AFTER 17-19Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, A COUPLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO LIMITED TO ADD INTO THE TAF. THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 5-9 KTS WITH CIRRUS CONTINUING TO STREAM
IN AND EVENTUALLY ANOTHER DECK AROUND 5000 FT DEVELOPING. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES EARLY
FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AFTER 09-12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT MAIN RAIN CHANCE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY, POSSIBLY CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...17
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