873
FXUS62 KCAE 191739
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES 1 AND 2. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
BREEZY WINDS ON FRIDAY.
- 2) A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING.
- 3) COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ONGOING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA DESPITE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE
MID-70S TODAY WITH UPPER 70S POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON
FRIDAY THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES GET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN WITH STRONGER
WINDS THAT MAY REQUIRE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
PRODUCTS TO THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE TO SEE WHAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG A PASSING
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TOMORROW WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND RISE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
THE WEAKENING BOUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, POSSIBILITY MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DICTATE BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND THE HIGHEST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CONFIDENCE
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY CONTINUES TO RISE AND
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE NOW LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA ON SATURDAY,
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN REGARDS TO
THE THUNDERSTORM RISK, THE DAY 3 SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. AS MENTIONED, THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP BUT IN
GENERAL THE FARTHER SOUTH IN THE FA YOU ARE, THE GREATER THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STILL NOT OVERLY ENTHUSED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY BUT IF WE SEE A SETUP
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING ADVERTISED ON THE 12Z NAMNEST, WHERE
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE
WEST, THEN THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL IS WORTH MONITORING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
MUCH OF THE WEATHER SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY
BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AS A DRY AND COLDER AIR
MASS RUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CYCLONE.
KEY MESSAGE #3: COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD AND
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM UP
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY MAY ALSO BE BREEZY DUE
TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THEN SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS WHEN
STRATUS RETURNS AGAIN.
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING LINGERING MVFR
CIGS IN STRATOCUMULUS. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND BECOME VFR
DURING THE 18Z-20Z TIME FRAME WITH A VFR CIG EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT
BEEN AS GUSTY EXPECTED, PARTLY DUE TO THE EXTENDED CLOUD COVER
BUT SHOULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A STRONG 30-35 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS AND
MAY IMPACT TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE AREA AFTER
12Z THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL BE AFTER THIS
FORECAST SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND
INCLUDE A PREVAILING MVFR CIG GROUP AFTER 11Z-12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH A FRONT THAT MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...23
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