735
FXUS62 KCAE 192336
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
BREEZY WINDS ON FRIDAY.
- 2) A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING.
- 3) COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS ON FRIDAY.
WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON
FRIDAY THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
GET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN WITH STRONGER WINDS THAT MAY
REQUIRE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH. WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE OF ANY PRODUCTS TO THE
NEXT FORECAST CYCLE TO SEE WHAT THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG A PASSING
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TOMORROW WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND RISE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
THE WEAKENING BOUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, POSSIBILITY MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DICTATE BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND THE HIGHEST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CONFIDENCE
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY CONTINUES TO RISE AND
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE NOW LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA ON SATURDAY,
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN REGARDS TO
THE THUNDERSTORM RISK, THE DAY 3 SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. AS MENTIONED, THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP BUT IN
GENERAL THE FARTHER SOUTH IN THE FA YOU ARE, THE GREATER THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STILL NOT OVERLY ENTHUSED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY BUT IF WE SEE A SETUP
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING ADVERTISED ON THE 12Z NAMNEST, WHERE
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE
WEST, THEN THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL IS WORTH MONITORING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
MUCH OF THE WEATHER SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY
BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AS A DRY AND COLDER AIR
MASS RUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CYCLONE.
KEY MESSAGE #3: COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD AND
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEEKEND SYSTEM
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM UP
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY MAY ALSO BE BREEZY DUE
TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT, THEN RESTRICTIONS DOWN INTO MVFR
POSSIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENING, BUT WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, A RETURN OF SOME STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH THOSE
CONDITIONS HOLDING ON LONGER THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS AGS/DNL.
BY NOONTIME, MOST SITES SHOULD SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR,
BUT WITH SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING THE REGION AROUND
THAT SAME TIME, MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PUSHING EAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BACK TO VFR EXPECTED AFTER 20-21Z AT ALL SITES.
ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS GOING TO BE THE SUSTAINED
WINDS, AND EXPECTED WIND GUSTS. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET SETS UP
OVERNIGHT, AND SOME SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW-LEVEL PROFILE THAT
WOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS, AND WIND GUSTS
INCREASE BACK TO BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS. EVEN STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER MIXING. GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE, AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS MIXING DOWN AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS INTO THIS WEEKEND. CHANCES
OF RAIN CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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