839
FXUS62 KCAE 200652
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKE, WITH TOTALS
OF 0.5"+ EXPECTED.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKE, WITH TOTALS
OF 0.5"+ EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MARCHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, WITH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
IT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS A RESULT, WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING AT THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY APPROACHES THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPS IN THE 70S, SOME
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THESE PROBABLY WON'T BE TOO
WIDESPREAD, THOUGH, GIVEN WEAK BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
THROUGH THE DAY. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH EXPECTED. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS.
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, LIKELY
SLOWING DOWN SOMEWHERE IN OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE
LOCATION OF THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR THE OVERALL FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND AS IT WILL DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT RAIN FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BUT IN
GENERAL, IT SHOULD END UP SOMEWHERE IN OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, A ROUND OF INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 4A ON SATURDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS
ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND ARE MORE REALISTIC THAN THE
CAMS WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, SO LEANING
MORE INTO THEIR SOLUTIONS AS OF NOW. EXPECTING A SWATH OF
MODERATE RAIN EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK COOLER
DUE TO CLOUDS & THE FRONT FULLY CLEARING THE AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE TRICKY AND SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THAT
FRONT, WITH IT BEING THE IMPETUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE 0.5" OF RAIN OR
MORE, WHICH WILL AID IN IMPROVING OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE #2: COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN CONUS LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS >90% CHANCES OF TEMPS 10F OR MORE BELOW NORMAL
ON BOTH DAYS. ECE EFI SUGGESTS ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPS BOTH DAYS
TOO. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND ONLY THE LOW 50S
ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE QUITE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM GIVEN HOW
ANOMALOUSLY WARM WE HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS! MODERATING
TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, THEN MIX OF RESTRICTIONS
THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE MAIN STORY OF THE TAF PERIOD IS AN APPROACHING FRONT, WHICH
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS, AND A MIX OF VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY. FOR EARLY FRIDAY, STRENGTHENING WINDS
AROUND 2K FEET WILL PUSH THE TAF SITES CLOSE TO LLWS CONDITIONS,
BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT REACHING
CRITERIA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 20-25
KNOTS. CIGS WILL STEADILY DROP TO MVFR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
CONSOLIDATED LINE OF SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL TURN OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS INTO THIS WEEKEND. CHANCES
OF RAIN CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...82
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page