510
FXUS62 KCAE 201808
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
108 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AS CLEARING SKIES MOVE INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASE AGAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASE
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH
ALONG WITH THIS FRONT, BUT ARE ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA. ONCE
THESE SHOWERS MOVE EAST, RAIN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH END FOR TODAY
AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HIT THE
HIGH FOR TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT SAW RAIN.
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY IS FORECAST TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER
TROUGH IS ABLE TO HELP PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS FRONT HANGING OUT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN, WITH AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
INSTABILITY CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER CSRA. SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER STORM, BUT IT
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY GETS IN THE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD.
KEY MESSAGE #2: COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
BEGIN THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO MODERATELY HIGH THAT LOWS
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF TODAY WITH
RESTRICTIONS RETURNING SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT HAS SCATTERED OUT LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN HAS MOSTLY PUSHED
EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OGB. THE FRONT WILL
DIP SOUTH BUT WILL STALL LEADING TO SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AGAIN INTO
TOMORROW, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. FOR NOW, HAVE
KEPT CONDITIONS AT MVFR BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING
TO IFR AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR FUTURE
UPDATES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS INTO THIS WEEKEND. CHANCES
OF RAIN CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...96
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