109
FXUS62 KCAE 210100
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
800 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DRIER AIR THAN EXPECTED HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT RAIN
EARLIER TODAY HAS STALLED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SEEMS TO HAVE STALLED SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AS NOTED
BY THE DIFFERENCES IN WIND DIRECTION AND DEW POINTS. EAST OF THE
FRONT, WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WINDS WEST
OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY MORE WESTERLY. DEW POINTS RANGE FROM
THE 60S IN THE EAST TO 40S IN THE WEST. THE DEW POINTS ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THEM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH IS ABLE TO HELP PUSH THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS FRONT
HANGING OUT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
LEAD TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN, WITH AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR
MORE POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO.
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW INSTABILITY CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER CSRA. SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF A STRONGER STORM, BUT IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY GETS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES
EASTWARD.
KEY MESSAGE #2: COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
BEGIN THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO MODERATELY HIGH THAT LOWS
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF TONIGHT, WITH A FEW MVFR
RESTRICTIONS RETURNING SATURDAY AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
AROUND 10K FT MSL ARE STARTING TO RETURN TO THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LESS
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB DURING THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD, BUT MORE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
NOW, HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS AT MVFR BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERING TO IFR WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN, ESPECIALLY MOVING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN WLY
TONIGHT AND NLY/NELY ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY
RESULTING IN RESTRICTIONS. CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR RETURNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...10
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